Probabilistic scores

Probabilistic forecasts predict a range of plausible outcomes. Most existing ML-based methods currently produce deterministic forecasts, so IFS ENS is the only model that uses the probabilistic forecasts metrics. We plan to add data-driven probabilistic models as they are developed and released by the weather and ML community. The interactive graphic below displays a range of probabilistic metrics as a function of the forecast lead time.

For a detailed description of the variables, models and metrics, see the FAQ. Please click the model names in the legend to add or remove them from the plot. Note that not all combinations of parameters are available.